Data Points to Closures, Oktoberfest Cancelled
So, Stay Home and Support when Possible!
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| Some Breweries Will Close During this Current Situation, Data Indicates |
According to the survey results, found here, Economist for BA Bart Watson outlines what the 455 sample of respondents had to say. “A majority of breweries do not think their business can last three months given current conditions, suggesting thousands of closings,” Watson predicts.
The survey reveals a massive reduction in sales and the economic impact from having to layoff staff. Although there are some innovative approaches such as the impromptu “drive-thru” beer pick up, delivery, and on-line ordering, the results indicate that is not sustainable without draft sales.
When the sample was asked how long their business could remain in operation with the current social distancing orders in place: 2.5% will close now, 12.7% 1 to 4 weeks, 46.4% 1 to 3 months, 25% 3 to 6 months, 8.3% 6 months to a year, and only 5.1% more than a year.
Watson writes: “As of writing, there are about 8,150 active breweries in the country. If 2.5% of those breweries close, that would mean about 200 closures, 12.7% about 1,035 closures, and 46.4% about 3,785. Based on recent trends, it was likely that 4-5% of the breweries in the country would have closed in 2020 prior to this shock, so while some percentage of these closures and potential closures reflect business that were already struggling, most are brought on solely by this event.”
For a palatable reference point closer to home, apply those percentages to OC, with 50 operating breweries with some brands having a second location with brewing on premise. 12.7% is about 6 brewery closures. This does not include our wonderful mead producers or distilleries.
Although the CARES Act offered some relief, the survey also specifies what some future Acts should include, mainly direct grants and tax incentives. One very reasonable one would be a Spoiled Beer Tax Credit especially since so much beer is going to end up in the drain.
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| Oktoberfest Will Have to Wait 'Till 2021 in Munich |
The cancellation of this year’s Oktoberfest is more than likely a foreshadowing of what’s to come here. Locally, The Phoenix Club in Anaheim, Old World in Huntington Beach, and others rely on the revenue brought in by their very own Oktoberfest celebrations. It is my hope if they indeed do cancel this year’s celebrations that they are able to be creative and find a way to celebrate while still adhering to the social distancing orders.
Knowledge is power. We’ve collected data. We turned that data into information. We can use that information to gain knowledge. Now, more than ever we need the assistance of everyone to make sure we see all our breweries, mead producers, distilleries, pubs, bars, and eateries on the other side of this timeline. Let’s hope the proper influencers show themselves to the powers that be in public office for the assistance our friends need.
Given these data points, we still have plenty of opportunity to change the course of history. Yes, stay home. Keep adhering to the advice of the medical professionals. Don’t be upset or angry about possibly not being able to celebrate Oktoberfest. Instead, see how you can support those establishments in the coming months. Continue to help your local breweries, especially those that may not have as much clout as others.
Cheers, stay safe, stay home, and thank you for your support!
-Gilbert “Charlie” Perez, Advanced Cicerone®